Friday, July 14, 2006

It is not a game

Israeli forces intensified their attacks in Lebanon today, with airstrikes blasting the country's only international airport and the Hezbollah TV station. It was Israel's heaviest air campaign against Lebanon for 24 years.

If it was just a game of chess, the US Admin would probably be regretting the complex strategy, let’s call it the ‘Israel Gambit’ devised as a ploy to cover their backs.

The Israel Gambit has always been capricious, moving to its own game, taking its own advantages and more than once leaving the US exposed.

The hopes of a stable Lebanon, hopes which were rapidly coming to fruition, are now shattered. But the US should have seen it coming; the latest attacks on Lebanon follow a pattern that we have seen in Israel's dealings with Lebanon over the past 30 years.

It was the withdrawal of Syrian troops, which ironically, added real hope to stabilising the region. Instead it has been an invitation to Israel to go after old enemies among the Hezbollah, who are represented now in the Lebanese government.

So with the US busy on another part of the board, Olmert’s new administration slated responsibility for the plight of the abducted Israeli soldiers directly onto Lebanon.

It is a cynical move, but one which suits the current determination to simply wipe their troublesome foes off the board entirely.

So where does that leave US gameplay now? They regard Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorists (although oddly enough, not Israel) and refuse to deal with terrorists.

Syria could step in to play a serious role in averting a full blown tragedy, but the US regards them as little better than Hamas and Hezbollah. Oh yes, they have cut off their options in so many ways.

So, as Israeli forces intensified their attacks in Lebanon; with airstrikes blasting the country's only international airport and the Hezbollah TV station, the US strategists are left floundering.

This is Israel's heaviest air campaign against Lebanon for 24 years. It is nothing more than a power play, in a region where all parties are tainted and guilty.

But for the US it must be seen as a major strategic setback, intensifying the problems of being bogged down in Iraq, ignored by Iran and shown to be totally ineffective in Afghanistan.

But it is not a game, the failed US strategy which has left the rest of us to simply watch in horror as more new atrocities are piled up on the old.

3 comments:

Reality-Based Educator said...

Well, they wanted Syria out of there, didn't they. Remember when Condi acted like Syria's leaving was the best thing since Prada? Funny how things work out - Syria actually was a stabilizing influence in its own heavy-handed way. Who knew? Definitely not the admin!!!

Cartledge said...

It sure as hell isn't simple and there don't seem to be many good guys in the mix.
I still feel US strategic errors have turned a festering sore into a violent eruption.

Praguetwin said...

Great post.

You mean it isn't just bad guys and good guy's? Well, uh, how does that work exactly.

I really am sarcastic tonight!

Except for the "great post" comment. That was honest.