Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Dumping the election load

After some connectivity problems in the past few days I think we are back in business, and out catching the undercurrents of the elections. One issue that stood out, during my erratic browsing, was the correlation between campaign fund raising and votes.

It was spurred by an article on BARRON'S COVER Survivor! where the writer was quite adamant that the success of fund raising efforts reflected the final vote. He was downright rude as well toward anyone who would doubt him.

Okay, I'm still learning the ways of US elections, so I asked Mike over at Born at the Crest of the Empire, and I think we came up with a pretty good analysis: Does donation cash equal votes?

Where I come from (Australia) politicians are fond of reminding anyone who will listen "there is only one poll that counts." Sure it is self protective, regardless of the numbers, but it also reflect the unpredictability of elections.

Listening to the pundits across the US and discounting the obviously partisan and overexcited, there is a sense of a moderate win, for the Democrats in the House; and even money on at least a tie in the Senate.

Now if you want to know how, on probabilities, I can speculate a landslide victory you will need to go to the story. Tipping the balance or dumping the load?

There is also the latest Watch List of the House and Senate races that bear watching, with early projections.

3 comments:

NYC Educator said...

I read your piece, and I'm very disappointed you didn't mention my Congressman, Peter King, in NY's 3rd district, who's certainly getting a run for his money by Dave Mejias.

Last poll I saw was 48-46 King. Before that he was 30 points ahead, and I don't see the mo going Pete's way. He may pull it out, but barely.

Cartledge said...

Well we do the best we can, which isn't always so hot :( So much to cover so little gray matter to spread.
But I am always open to guidance and will look into this lapse. TY

Kvatch said...

Mike makes an important, and I think that we're going to see this borne out in the House...almost certainly...and the Senate...maybe. The maxim of "all politics being local" is usually expressed in the US through wide swings in the House, like 1994.

Nice post.