Saturday, September 15, 2007

A wild prediction

My old buddies out there will be aware of my taste for wild predictions, and a pretty fair batting average as well. So here goes, sometime between today and October 1 Australia will have a new Prime Minister.

My best guess is that next Wednesday the Liberal Party of Australia will elect current treasurer to succeed John Howard as Prime Minister. This is despite an apparent endorsement of Howard’s leadership this week.

The fuse on this particular bomb has been fizzing for weeks, held back only by Howard’s clever brand of politicking. However the string of bad polls is set to continue, with another doozy due on Tuesday.

Part of Howard’s strategy was to announce his retirement in the next term, anointing Costello as his replacement. That has already set Costello up as a Clayton’s PM, the Prime Minister you have when you aren’t having a Prime Minister.

None of these ploys has even begun to allay the concerns of the party or the voters. What we are all learning is that the 24 hour rule is king at the moment. Regardless of how dramatic or placating the news on any given day, it is turned on its head by the next day.

Give it a week, and time for Howard’s reality to take hold, the party is not going to be so amenable or intimidated by the clever PM. So there you go, the neck is way out there, but I don’t think the risk of being wrong is so great.

3 comments:

Kvatch said...

My best guess is that next Wednesday the Liberal Party of Australia will elect current treasurer to succeed John Howard as Prime Minister.

This, I think, is exactly what I predicted wouldn't happen, but does smack of some delicious desperation on the part of the liberals.

So I tell you what, I bet you that Howard won't be replaced this week. If your win, I come to Australia and buy the beer. If I win, I come to Australia and you buy the beer. (The upshot being that the Frogette and are thinking of a visit to your fair country.)

Cartledge said...

Now today's news of a 4% lift for the government should make your bet safe. I'm waiting. Good news for Howard one day has invariably turned sour by the next.
Either way, I do hope you are planning on travel outside Sydney or whichever destination. The beer will flow freely, I promise.

Kvatch said...

Either way, I do hope you are planning on travel outside Sydney or whichever destination. The beer will flow freely, I promise.

Actually... not thinking much on Sydney at all. Rather, we were thinking of visiting South Australia and the far southern corner of the Western Australia. I hear the latter is quite stunning. But...if we do come we'll be sure to hit the coast between Sydney and Melbourne.