Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Judgement Day Downunder

Bad boy John and thanks kvatch for the inspiration….

I’ve been musing lately on how judgement day seems to be closing in on John Howard. Despite a bag full of dirty tricks and wedge politicking poor ‘old’ John can’t take a trick. After a decade of dominance he simply can’t get traction for his latest campaign.

The leak of a report from his own Rovian strategists seems fishy to most commentators, given the very few people on the distribution list for these gems. The most probable scenario cited was a sort of reverse psychology, based on attacks generally flowing back in favour of the attacked.

Nothing is working for Howard or his strategists, the shadowy Crosby/Textor. Even Howard‘s most loyal shock jock had to point out that the damning report came from internal sources, not his opponents.

There was a new poll out today which shows the government slipping further behind, and that from Murdoch’s stable. Again, I expect they are pushing for a sympathy kick-in, but it seem more unlikely as time goes by.

Kevin Rudd, on the other hand, is achieving solid traction, with even fairly dumb moves being lapped up by a growing support base. For the rest of us life is lonely outside the polarised centre of interest. Media still promote either or – Howard or Rudd.

4 comments:

Kvatch said...

Hey! That's a pretty cool GIF! Where'd you get that? ;-)

But seriously, what's the current makeup of parliament? In other words, how much ground will the liberals have to give up to become the minority party?

Cartledge said...

pretty cool GIF! Thanks froggy.
Labor require a further 16 seats to gain majority. The way things are shaping it looks like that might be a cakewalk.
20 - 25% of the electorate is normally open to a swing and the figure seems much higher at the moment.
Those economics! ;)

Kvatch said...

25% of the electorate in play? That's quite a total. I doubt very many countries have such volatile center. On the other hand, 16 seats seems a fairly slim majority. (Though after checking, looks like 10% if we're talking about the lower house.)

Not quite as slim as what where dealing with over here, but then the US is nuts.

Cartledge said...

The electorate here is not historically volatile, but there is a potential for a strong swing, given the right conditions. Generally each major party can count on around a 30% solid support.
More often a 1 or 2% swing is large, but there is a strong group in the middle, the mortgage belt etc, who are sensitive to economic realities. I would argue that you saw a similar swing in the mid terms, particularly in the rust belt states.
Our situation, like yours I suspect, is made complicated by the essential sameness of both parties now. A sort of radical conservatism rules, so that making the change isn’t such a big deal. Rudd is being called a younger version of Howard