Private rate rises

Eight of 21 Australian economists surveyed are tipping a rate rise by the end of the year. Two even tip a hike by the Reserve Bank next week. But there is no need to hold our breaths.

Major banks, the Commonwealth, National, Westpac and St George have all introduced higher card rates that are not directly linked to RBA (central bank) interest rate rises.

The Reserve Bank has now regulated interchange and cut back the merchant service fees. As a result, card issuers have shifted more of the cost on to consumers through higher annual fees, penalty charges and interest rates.

Banks used to adjust their credit card interest rates in line with official cash rates but not any more.

Obviously the concern over an official rate rise in Australia is academic when banks are boosting their rates independently. So obviously official economic figures are no longer to be relied on when it comes to the big picture.

Talking the disconnect

The major battle for the hearts and minds of Australian voters is being fought around ‘economic management’ credentials. Call it pedantry, or even polemic, but government has long since given up the reins of the economy.

The Australian government no longer control currency or interest rates. They no longer have any function in setting tariffs or central wage fixing. They have sold off airlines, rail systems, the national telco carrier and much more. What they have not sold outright they have corporatised. Anything but economic management.

That just leaves fiscal policy, setting the level of public expenditure, distribution of the loot – or otherwise. The fact that there is still plenty of loot to distribute is thanks solely to the China boom. The resource exports to China are set to carry us for a while yet.

The fly in the ointment there really does come down to politics and who gets the kudos – state or federal politicians. So holding the purse strings the feds can behave a bit like parents doling out pocket money. More often than not there are strings attached designed to give the feds maximum glory for spending our money.

Meantime the major parties are running the agenda on this false claim of economic management. At present the Howard Government has the running in this illusory game. There are very real issues out there, but these guys know the glib jargon that gets the average punter going.

Jerking the figures

Having give my previous post, Howard faces rate rise reality, a little more thought I think I am starting to understand the dynamic. There are a couple of stand out issues; trade and domestic growth. So starting with the latter:

Like other western economies Australia has gone with the ‘growth is good’ dynamic. Of course growth is fine in its place, but you can’t keep paying off last months debt by creating another notional income stream.

“When we've got no spare capacity, the economy can't grow faster than its longer-term trend rate of growth, known to economists as its "potential" growth rate.” Gittins

Developers are driving the economy. Both commercial and residential development is the fundamentalist economic mantra. This is at a time of the country’s peak in personal bankruptcies and insolvencies. It is a time when retailers are battling to cover rising rental costs as consumer spending is falling.

On Trade:

“…growth of 4.5 per cent in the volume of exports, but then must subtract the exceptionally strong growth of 11.3 per cent in the volume of imports. Combine the two and "net external demand" (exports minus imports) subtracted 1.6 percentage points to give growth in aggregate demand (domestic plus external) of 3.8 per cent (near enough).” Gittins

The net foreign debt stood at $532 billion (or 52 per cent of GDP) at the end of March, up from $492 billion (51.7 per cent) a year earlier. This is about free trade vs fair trade. Australia has gone the free trade route and in the process sacrificed self-sustainability and self reliance.

We are sending raw product, mineral resources, out of the country as fast as we can load ships. But we are bringing in a wide range of manufactured and food products to make up for the industry sectors we have given away under various free trade agreements.

I was amazed some months back to see kiwifruit in supermarkets which came from eastern Europe. We send our wool to Italy and China, then buy back manufactured goods. I could go on, but the fact is, our masters have fallen for the pea and thimble trick. I hope so at least, the other alternative is that they will walk away with fat pockets while the country goes down the tube.

Howard faces rate rise reality

Australian Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is flag the potential for a rate rise before the upcoming federal election He warned that decisions would not be influenced by the political timetable.

The warning flies in the face of government claims of a booming economy, but we have all heard that one before.

One commentator, Ross Gittins, says:

“This week's sheaf of figures may be great news for the politicians, but for the economic managers they're a worry. For most of last year, the great puzzle was why the national accounts said the economy was growing slowly when the labour force survey said employment was growing strongly.

“The national accounts say real gross domestic product grew by a rapid 3.8 per cent over the year to March, while the labour force survey says employment grew by a rapid 3.1 per cent over the year to May.

“Trouble is, with the economy having grown so strongly for so long - employment grew by 3.2 per cent over the previous year to May - you'd expect to be seeing signs of inflation pressure building, and there aren't any.

“…financial markets were right to respond to this week's figures by increasing their estimate of the probability that the Reserve Bank will raise the official interest rate again.” If it looks too good to be true, it probably is

I can’t say I fully understand the argument, but I respect the commentator and rarely find him off the mark. The bottom line is that Howard will no go to an election before his cobber George W visits Australia in early September.

The tipping is now building for a rate rise early in September which will more closely reflect the household economics of the country as opposed to the ‘booming’ markets. Good news at least for my well worn economic election prediction model.

Wading through treacle

Since being back in Australia working the blogs and my corruption website have become an annoying frustration rather than the pleasure they once were. Why?

Australia lags, says net guru

Larry Smarr, director of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology, says "real broadband" would allow connections 1000 times the speed of the current average Australian connection - and 80 times the speed the Government and Labor propose.

"Australia is great in terms of the old infrastructure … so you think of yourselves as a modern country", but on internet infrastructure, "Australia ranks 42nd in the world in the cost of internet service, 38th in mobile phone costs, 40th on the availability of skilled labour and engineers, and 20th on scientific infrastructure. If you want your living standard to remain … one of the best in the world, it's going to have to be by adding value in a globally interconnected economy."

Working on the net here is like wading through treacle. Broadband is closer to North American dial up than true broadband. One of the results I have noticed here is a real ignorance of the benefits of various net tools among people here.

Over a decade ago I was at an internet conference in Sydney where Vinton Cerf , inventor of tcp/ip took the then minister for communications to task for Australia’s appalling internet connectivity. Nothing has changed!

Constructing a campaign

As reported previously, kvatch’s commandos proved a little confronting for poor sensitive Australians. We still intend having little plastic guys spreading our message of ‘Who Cares?’ through the electorate of Lyne.

We lucked onto these construction workers, the message of building a better country fits well and shouldn’t disturb any poor puppies out there.

These guys still need to be labelled, which will happen when our ‘campaign calligrapher’ turns up for work.

The things haunting our dreams

I know there are far better things to do with our sleeping time, but I woke today with a vision, as reproduced here, of Mark Vaile riding a bull.

As leader of the junior coalition partner, the rural based Nationals, the imagery seemed to fit. If the Nationals are further reduced they will simply be absorbed into the Liberal Party and Vaile will probably become just another backbencher.

I’m not sure we can seriously damage him in this electorate, but he is still fighting for his political future.

The party grinding down

A few weeks ago we had political and media fireworks from the Australian Labor Party national conference. That event was matched this weekend with a slow hising from the Liberal party’s big event.

Very little media or fireworks. In fact the conference appeared more content to focus on the past rather than the future. Howard's message all weekend was similar. "I have a great story to tell," and; "It is never a time for a change unless a change is for the better."

Some of the more interesting media quotes:

Ultimately, workers are more swayed by their own financial circumstances than macroeconomic theory.

The elephant in the room over the weekend remained what to do if the polls did not improve within six weeks.

The internal sentiment is that things may have been different had the party changed leaders last year when there was a chance. This, however, ignores the fact that no one then knew Labor was going to switch from Kim Beazley to ...

"Howard was our power source back then," said one senior party figure harking back to last July. "Now he's like an old mobile phone battery. He doesn't hold his charge."

One MP likened the Government to the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, staying put defiantly with severed limbs but willing to fight. SMH

Howard said: "The question I pose to the Australian people, quite directly, is this: who do you trust to take these vital decisions about our future? Age

Given the current polling, I am surprised Howard would pose the question when he does not know the answer. Trust might not be the most effective argument to put just now.

So much for secrecy

I know some countries can’t even boast the second rate public health services available in Australia. The Howard government, fond as it is of the ‘level playing field’ is now planning to sell of the government health insurer Medibank.

They are looking to add around $2 billion to the notional national pot. Not that they have any desire to compensate the population with this supposed windfall. On latest figures the money will probably be spent on publicly funded self-advertising.

If that is not worrying enough, there is a now not so secret plan to boost Medibank’s bottom line, and sale price, by adding in another key government health service; Health Services Australia (HAS).

HAS which generates revenues of about $100 million a year provides health and disability checks, rehabilitation and vaccination services.

Minister for Human Services, Chris Ellison, who is responsible for Health Services Australia, has stonewalled over questions about proposals for a transfer, citing commercial confidentiality.

Given the outrageous spending on government advertising at present, topping $25,000 an hour nationally, we are getting a very clear idea of how Howard’s team is choosing to spend the funds from selling off our assets. So much for a healthy society.

Progress in the Howard Revolution

John Howard has been determined to change the face of Australian society. Take a look at the evolving control mechanisms and some continuing results:

Silencing critics

The freedom of welfare, aid and environment groups to speak out about government policies has been called into question by a decision of the Australian Taxation Office to strip a voluntary watchdog of its charity status.

The ruling removed Aidwatch's charitable status, and triggered allegations that the Tax Office is being used by the Government to silence its critics.

Working harder and longer for less

An Australian Bureau of Statistics survey reveals the deep incursion work has already made into family and community life.

· The figures show 37 per cent of employees work overtime or extra hours - and about half of them do so for no extra pay.

· Almost a third of Australian employees work unsocial hours - between 7pm and 7am - and even more complain they have no say about when they start or finish.

· The reduced flexibility was felt across the board, but the biggest changes were in construction, entertainment and government employment.

· As for weekends, 16 per cent said they were required to work on Saturdays, and 8.5 per cent on Sundays. One in four were not always allowed to choose when to take their holidays.

Contrasted with:

· Almost two-thirds of managers have some say in precisely when they arrive at work and go home each day.

· Just over half of all managers can take time off when they need it, and make it up by putting in extra hours later.

· Only 10 per cent of managers routinely works shifts.

· Of Australia's 8 million employees, only 3 million, or 38 per cent, were able to arrange working hours to take time off when needed and make it up later.

On housing:

· The average monthly repayment needed to buy a typical first home in Sydney has hit $3000 for the first time.

· This is up $442 on a year ago, and second only to Perth-based first-home buyers who shell out $3009 a month

· Median Sydney first-home price rose 9.6 per cent to $507,400 over the year to March

The $3000-a-month figure is based on repayments required to service a loan worth 80 per cent of the value of the median first home, at the average variable interest rate of 7.5 per cent. It assumes principal repayments are made in excess of interest.

On Vaile

Mark Vaile has foreshadowed a fresh batch of grants to regional areas under a funding program previously attacked as being political pork-barrelling.

The Deputy Prime Minister has also allowed the community-based committees that make recommendations about the grants to keep $1.5 million in one-off funding despite acknowledging they have failed to meet conditions to qualify for the money.

"The Coalition Government has delivered the longest period of economic expansion in Australia's history, but we recognise that the benefits of our strong economy are not distributed evenly across the country," he said.

You get the drift, in the absence of definitive figures on economic impact I am taking a different approach; looking at those areas voters are undeniably hurting. The ‘big picture’ looks rosy, but it isn’t so rosy out in the electorate.

UPDATE:

Going broke going for broke

Despite a booming economy and record employment there are further indications of mounting economic stress from the increase in personal bankruptcies.

These have been accelerating at twice the rate they were last year and the latest figures indicate that 30,000 individuals a year are going broke.

The inspector-general of the Insolvency and Trustee Service Australia, Terry Gallagher, recently told a Senate committee that bankruptcies had risen 12.5 per cent in the nine months to March.

"You could go back 10 or 15 years, when bankruptcy numbers were 13,000 a year, and now they are 30,000 a year," he said.

On the trail

If John Howard's worst fears were realised in this year's election, Coalition numbers in the House of Representatives would be halved and the Prime Minister, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull would be among 13 ministers to lose their seats.

A state-by-state analysis of Herald/ACNielsen polls for the past six months provides the first detailed impression of Mr Howard's doomsday prediction last week that his 11-year-old Government faced "annihilation".

… as many as 46 of the 87 Liberal and Nationals seats could be wiped out. How annihilation looks for Howard

I’m in campaign mode and the campaign is against the Australian Deputy Prime Minister, Mark Vaile. He isn’t mentioned in the numbers, essentially because he is a nobody. Even so, we have his party machine to contend with.

I’m finding it fascinating that no one here can recall his name. Bloody hell! If I were Dep PM I would at least sell the idea to my home electorate! But He is far to busy for that. We have a letter box bump claiming Mark Vaile – Our local member & Deputy Prime Minister. I’m sure if I was paying a few grand for letterboxing I’d try and say something more compelling.

But he is a ‘big picture’ man and his latest media burst is – Provide ethanol blends:

“The federal Transport Minister [Mark Vaile] says Australia's major supermarket chains should sell ethanol blended fuel at their service stations.

"They can provide that at three cents a litre cheaper to assist motorists," he said.

The national auto associations claim 4 cents saving, but then say tat would be wiped out by the lower fuel efficiency. They also point out that:

· there is simply not the feedstock in this drought ridden country to provide this alternative fuel.

· There is currently no excise on ethanol, but there will be in time.

· Not all engines can cope with an ethanol mix.

So good one Mark. Almost as good as handing 4300 million to Saddam’s regime!

Commando offensive

Our election campaign is off and running with local media coverage featuring the toy soldier assault. We were out overnight deploying the troops as a back up to the news coverage.

Odd thing is that despite agreeing with the campaign sentiment, Who Cares?, and the low cost approach, the toy soldiers are deemed offensive. The above pic was taken at the candidates bank. He is well liked there and the message well accepted. But the toy soldier when into the bin straight away.

Considering all the various reasons for sensitivity towards military figures we are considering branching out into less aggressive plastic figures. There is no real interest here in the various conflicts this country is involved in, but the novel approach to campaigning is well accepted.

Thanks kvatch for the basic concept. We have a few months to refine the approach, but it beats the hell out of stuffing letter boxes with junk.

UPDATE:

Just for froggy. (see comments)

"The very least they could have done is come up with some cranky bolt action rifle." With sights asw well ;) This little guy chose the best local news network door knob!

Howard is just like Mugabe

'Howard is just like Mugabe'

Prime Minister John Howard finds himself alongside Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe in an Amnesty International report which says they are among short-sighted fear-mongers dividing the world.

The human rights pressure group has accused Mr Howard of portraying asylum-seekers as a threat to national security.

Okay, so I’m lazy. It is a great story, but life at campaign central hasn’t left much time for pontificating. Me and the candidate started, before sunup, this morning preparing for the first local media interview.

I had expected a week or so longer, but we are off and running, with possibly six months to go. The toy soldier campaign was a real winner, so we are busy labeling a few dozen to get out overnight to time with tomorrows paper.

As I get some decent pics I will post them, but thank you kvatch, the concept really has legs! Down the track we have around 30 nurses ready to hit town centres dressed in some raunchy nurse outfits to push the Who Cares? about healthcare funding.

It is going to be a long campaign for us, but full of fun I expect. We don’t plan on winning, but we really do hope to make some powerful statements. The web site, rushed as it is for now, is http://robincartledge.galleonpoint.com/ .

Any help from anywhere will be gladly received.

Electoral uncertainties

John Howard failed to get any bounce in the polls from his big election budget. Experts are still uncertain why, but at least one straw poll suggested that many Australians are pondering the idea that we should be putting humanity before the promise of economic growth. Particularly apt as few of us really benefit from the economic growth.

The fundamental battle now is between the Feds who control money supply, of funding, and the states who are in charge of delivery. That at least is those areas which the Feds have not yet usurped. But when it comes to handing out the cash the Feds are unable to simply hand it over without strings, and refuse if the strings are refused.

When we complain about health services the Feds are quick to shunt the blame to the stats. Yet in the recent budget Federal funding for hospitals allowed for 5% growth when the actual growth needs are 7.5%. Presumably they can then blame the states for poor spending habits.

The big funding mismatch has occurred because state funding comes from consumer taxes which are falling. The feds are benefiting from corporate taxes, thanks to the country’s current resources boom. But they are using that money for their own political purpose – our money for their use at a time when there is so much infrastructure need.

Instead of tackling some of the more thornier problems of Federal and state overlap the Feds are intent on playing politics and allowing vital services to run down. It is still too far out to call, but voters are now talking about social and environmental issues being at the forefront of the agenda.

Typically, come election time, the economy will rise to the top of the heap again. But it is tempting to think the growing cynicism in the electorate might just hold out for a change. Tempting, but perhaps not very realistic.

Now this is a campaign

Anyone who knows anything about me knows I love nothing better than a political campaign (Well almost but I’m working on that too.) But this latest campaign (More election excitement) already ranks as one of the best.

This election campaign is so different from anything I’ve tried before. I am officially the campaign “whatsy-thingo-business’. Don’t ask me, I’m just trying to craft a campaign here. Personally I want to shoot some holes in the Howard government incumbency.

Without money or resources I am willing to be creative. It is a big ask, but our opponent, Deputy Prime Minister, Leader of the National Party and Minister for Transport and Rural Services Mark Vaile, is busy on his version of the Big Picture.

That is Mark’s favourite retort – “you don’t see the Big Picture’. But of course we can. He is currently, for the next week or so, in Queensland trying to save his arse! If the the Queensland support for his rump party dies the Dep PM won’t have a position anywhere, except perhaps as the failed leader of a failed party.

For me it is a great opportunity to engage in the dumbest campaign I have been involved with. Getting attention is the first priority, retaining it comes after that. In fact one of my major strategies is to adopt the ‘Kvatch's Kommandos approach, after I seek permission of course. (I’ll work on that froggy.)

In the end I am really interested, as campaign “whatsy-thingo-business’ in an off the planet approach to a campaign. Help me give Bush’s but plug and his offsider (the offsider is the target) a run for there money, even if it is not out money.

The campaign site is Who Cares? The Big Picture. But it will take a few days to populate the blog. So there is an open invitation for some off the planet guidance here. All weird ideas welcome. Let’s get them!

More election excitement

I can never resist a campaign, though there are some I probably should. The latest, here again in Port Macquarie, is with an independent challenge against Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader, Mark Vaile.

My brother Robin (see pic) has taken up the cudgels and, realistically, is looking to make a statement on the lack of political concern on social issues. His statement:

With a federal election due later in the year I am announcing my intention to challenge Mark Vaile for the seat of Lyne. As leader of the Nationals and Deputy Prime Minister Vaile has been consistently lacklustre. As my local member he has been a total failure.

My major concern is with social issues such as health and community well being. A key part of my campaign will be to take the word ‘care’ out of general use, to be replaced by the more accurate ‘Bean Counter’.

Health Care will become Health Bean Counter, for instance, unless a person or organisation wishing to use the word Care is certified and holds a Gold ‘Care’ Tick which must be earned to be gained.

The intention of this control will be to ensure that all Australians are aware of exactly what they are getting.

I realise that I will have to forget my long held love of Constitutional Federalism and adopt the ever popular Centralist stance to achieve this ban but ‘Life was not meant to be easy’ I have heard and there ‘ain’t’ no such thing as honesty in politics.

I shall keep my loyal constituents informed of further policy issues over the coming months and look forward to your feedback.

Robin Cartledge

Some of my regular readers might recall my previous comments on Vaile, particularly in relation to the AWB wheat scandal in Iraq. Knocking off an incumbent currently in the government leadership is not a realistic aim. But there are a few good points to be scored along the way.

It seems my task will be to craft the written stuff so he can then add his colour. I’m not sure how much I will figure in the campaign, as Robin believes I’m just a tad boring. But I will be in for the ride.

Defying predictions

Everyone from opposition leader Rudd to Howard’s team, and most pundits, predicted a boost in the polls for the Howard government following last weeks big spending budget which included tax cuts and other sweeteners.

Not so, according to the latest opinion poll:

The latest national poll indicates that the primary vote for the ALP is 49 per cent, which is unchanged since April. And for the Coalition it's 39 per cent which is only slightly changed from the 37 per cent that we saw in April.

When you look at the two-party preferred - the way that we allocate preferences is based on the last election. This results in a two-party preferred of 57 for the ALP, 43 for the Coalition, which represents a massive lead to the ALP. David Briggs was General Manager of Newspoll

Forty-nine per cent of respondents nominated Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd as their preferred prime minister, up three percentage points from the previous survey, and 37 per cent of voters preferred Prime Minister John Howard, down two percentage points.

Just listening to people around me over the past week there was little change in attitude to the Howard government, but I don’t really regard that small sample as a viable indicator, perhaps I should.

Like the pundits I was of the view that voters tend to overlook the obvious cynicism of vote buying if there is something in it for them. I also run with the economic indicators which are, on the face of it, still with the government. Obviously there are some serious underlying issues in play.

It is still too far out to get excited, but it seems each effort Howard launches to recover support simply makes things worse for him. I will watch with interest.

Soliloquy – Who cares?

It is not often I go down the path of personal reflection, but this has been a week… I have now had hands on experience of just how little the health care system of this country (Australia) cares about positive health outcomes. This is longer than I like and perhaps not the right forum, but I do need to express it.

I have a neighbour who is a stroke victim (we will call him SV). I boarded with him for a while but did not get on well. Prior to the stroke this guy was an acknowledge criminal, he retained the control freak nature which had kept him out of serious trouble.

The fact is, I found him sleazy and amoral, attributes which were not compensated for by his disability. I refused to join in his daily 2 hour drinking sessions, not because I don’t enjoy a drink, I’m just fussy about the company.

I rejected his behaviour, my brother and his girlfriend (a nurse) despised much about the man, but were obviously more caring than I. So Saturday a week ago SV was found in his apartment confused and obviously unwell – he had soiled the apartment fairly comprehensively.

We called for an ambulance and he was taken away. The hospital was not happy as he had signed himself out at least twice before, and they assumed the issue was alcohol related. They did not look further and even dumped his medications, including blood pressure and antibiotics.

So evidence based medicine was displaced by presumptions. By Tuesday he had been moved to a small rural hospital, but had still not seen a doctor apart from the ER doc. He wanted to come home, though how he was going to cope we did not know. But we worked out his issue was stress driven, that he was in deep financial trouble.

Though fairly confused SV knew he had to sort some banking out, and quickly. Not to resolve the bigger problems, but at least meet immediate pressures. We communicated all this to the medicos, but they still seemed to believe they were drying him out.

Come Friday and the hospital phoned to say he signed himself out and was coming home in a taxi. Knowing we were unable to care for him adequately, the next few hours were spent calling every resource we could find. Three strikes! No one was the slightest bit interested, on a Friday afternoon, in SV who was just seen as a trouble maker.

Worse! No one was interested in the stress it was putting on us, supposed, carers who really did not know how to cope with all this. Eventually we gained the attention of the community carers SV uses. It was reluctant and not very helpful.

5 am Saturday the community nurse rolled in in response to SV’s emergency button, then 30 mins later and ambulance rolled in. SV could not get out of bed to go to the bathroom and two burly ambos and a large nurse couldn’t figure out how to move him. My grumpy brother had to show them how to do it. Don’t know or don’t care?

The ambos went and SV stayed, then we spent the morning sorting out his immediate finances. During that process he was visibly relaxing and decided he really needed to go back to hospital. But it was up to two boofhead blokes and an off duty nurse to get him ready.

The nurse/brother’s girl friend was concerned about the smell. She had just cleaned up a death in hospital the previous night and was concerned about the smell of SV, it smelled like death. But we got in and showered him and found he was covered in shit and had not been bathed for a week in hospital.

Where is the care? Where is the dignity and basic humanity. I don’t like the man, but I am highly offended that the professional health system is so ready to dismiss on presumption then let a sick man literally stew in his own juices!

Then came the issue of getting him back to hospital. The ambos were not interested, nor was the hospital. So another couple of hours went by as we badgered the system. My brother tends to have a short fuse and is quick to tell them they are all effing C’s. Not helpful but we were stressed.

Through all that badgering, and later on the phone to the hospital, I gained a reputation for controlled verbal violence. I did not call anyone names, did not give cause to be cut off, but I was unrelenting and not willing to simply give in. When a nurse at the hospital explained that she was only an RN (Registered Nurse) as some sort of excuse I coldly told her I was not the minister for health but I still wanted answers.

I don’t like being this angry. I don’t like having to care about people I don’t like or even caring for ones I do like. Each to there own. The fact is I have enough issues of my own to deal with just now. Caring for someone elses issues doesn't really appeal.

But we did it. SV is now back in the system, for better or worse, and sort of proud that he made a good decision. Given no one in the system is interested in SV’s real issues, still, I don't really begrudge the time out from my own.

I will try not to avoid the bulk of the next few weeks of politicking on these issues. I don’t do health issues as a rule, don’t enjoy them at all. But there are wider issues involved, politically, about where our society is really heading.

The moment core issues, such as welfare, health and education,. Are taken over by money or religion we loose the plot. Once it is no longer about people then why even bother? I thought I didn’t care – now I find the system cares even less.

In Passing…

Just a couple of acknowledgements of issues from past blogs:

Coming...

JOSE RAMOS-HORTA has secured a stunning victory in Timor Leste’s (East Timor) run-off presidential election, winning 73 per cent of the 90 per cent of votes counted so far after sweeping the capital, Dili, and western mountain districts. He declined to declare victory until the final results had been announced.

The main opponent, parliamentary Speaker Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, refused to concede but, apart from in one district, had little chance of making up lost ground.

Going...

Tony Blair will tender his resignation to the Queen on June 27, and step down after a six-week Labour leadership contest that is a mere formality to elect the Chancellor, Gordon Brown.

About time Tony! Though it would be encouraging to see some real democracy in the mother of parliaments.

Market Manipulation Economics

While nearly everyone benefits from the Howard government’s election budget the detail is throwing up some interesting dynamics. As I predicted, lower income earners will be better off by about $3 per week. On the other hand a massive injection into education is beginning to look like market manipulation on a grand scale.

The Budget cash splurge has failed to address key issues facing low income earners such as housing affordability, advocacy groups have claimed. New figures released yesterday show the Australian house price index rose 1.1 per cent in the March quarter.

The big item was a $5-billion ‘endowment’ to higher education. The Government says that willl deliver $300-million a year by way of its income stream for capital works in universities.

The Federal Education Department's assessment is of the higher ed underspending, or under-investment Capital Works Program. As of today it's $1.5-billion. So if you simply assumed that that was going to generate $300-million a year, in five years' time you might have caught up with where you're supposed to be.

At the same time, the basics were ignored. Australia currently ranks last across the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in terms of national investment in the education, literacy and numeracy of four-year-olds.

So the big figure has been bandied about and virtually locked away. That is $5 billion the government have access to, in perpetuity, to move in and out of various short term issues. The first of these issues will be to turn university into internationally competitive profit centres.

The Feds have used the spectre of these bags of money to move on the States’ control of higher education. The aim, it appears, is to turn higher education into an international marketplace, ignoring Australia’s own education needs. So again, ‘our’ money will be used to further reduce our investment in the country’s future.

Don’t ask me what our politicians gain from these games. Perhaps it is ego or corruption, I really don’t see the benefit to them or the country. But from the evidence the manipulation is well under way.

Whose money?

Australian Federal Treasurer Peter Costello has been given a green light for tax cuts and other vote-winning spending when he delivers the Government's fourth pre-election Budget on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday cut its inflation forecast for this year, a clear indication it will happily sit back on interest rates for at least the rest of the year. Expectations of a $15 billion cash surplus for this year and another $14 billion for next year underline how much money there is in play.

They call it the ‘war chest’ and talk about how they will use their bountiful surplus to fight the upcoming election. The opposition ALP remain mute of course, given that when they hold power the ‘war chest’ is theirs.

Whose money is it? Surely not those self serving bastards we somehow elect to govern on our behalf. The language suggests the money does not belong to the citizens of this nation, but the governing party.

Being an election year budget it will be full of supposed goodies to temp hungry voters. The reality of election year tax cuts is $2 or 3 a week in the average taxpayers pocket. I’m never quite sure how that transforms into votes.

What the approach ignores ids that ‘their’ money – our money, would be far more value if it was spent on essential health and education services. Even a fraction of the projected surplus (and a fraction is all the tax cuts represent) would go a long way in developing a much needed underpinning to the countries health and education infrastructure.

Not bloody likely, that is too sensible. Howard's latest backflip on industrial relations has given the Government a trigger for a second multimillion-dollar, taxpayer-funded advertising campaign promoting its workplace legislation before this year's federal election.

It is there money it seems and few are even aware that the country’s wealth is being diverted to free election campaign funds. I know Australia is not alone in this flagrant misuse of public funds. But like elsewhere there is barely a murmur of dissent.