Defying predictions

Everyone from opposition leader Rudd to Howard’s team, and most pundits, predicted a boost in the polls for the Howard government following last weeks big spending budget which included tax cuts and other sweeteners.

Not so, according to the latest opinion poll:

The latest national poll indicates that the primary vote for the ALP is 49 per cent, which is unchanged since April. And for the Coalition it's 39 per cent which is only slightly changed from the 37 per cent that we saw in April.

When you look at the two-party preferred - the way that we allocate preferences is based on the last election. This results in a two-party preferred of 57 for the ALP, 43 for the Coalition, which represents a massive lead to the ALP. David Briggs was General Manager of Newspoll

Forty-nine per cent of respondents nominated Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd as their preferred prime minister, up three percentage points from the previous survey, and 37 per cent of voters preferred Prime Minister John Howard, down two percentage points.

Just listening to people around me over the past week there was little change in attitude to the Howard government, but I don’t really regard that small sample as a viable indicator, perhaps I should.

Like the pundits I was of the view that voters tend to overlook the obvious cynicism of vote buying if there is something in it for them. I also run with the economic indicators which are, on the face of it, still with the government. Obviously there are some serious underlying issues in play.

It is still too far out to get excited, but it seems each effort Howard launches to recover support simply makes things worse for him. I will watch with interest.