Diplomatic dispatches

The most likely outcome in Iraq is civil war, Britain's outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned in a confidential memo to ministers.

In a confidential and final memo to ministers, William Patey also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

Patey wrote:
"The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy."

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt."

On the probabilities: "…the position is not hopeless, although it adds Iraq will remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years.

On the Shia: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al Mahdi from developing into a state with a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."

Iraq want troops out
While all this is going on, US led forces are attempting to strengthen control, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and PM Nouri al-Maliki are constantly calling for a coalition troop pullout.

Talabani said yesterday his country's forces would take over control of all 18 provinces by the end of this year, assuming security responsibility from US-led forces. Not, of course for the first time, and obviously cognizant of the bloodbath that would follow.

It seems difficult to argue against the idea that Iraqi factions want to raise the stakes here, without the interference of occupation forces.

So how do you balance the right to self determination with the imperative to head off the cruel slaughter which would follow a pullout?

From the antiterrorism view point it would be wise to let them at each other, to focus extremist attention on the dustbowl of Iraq. But of course antiterrorism is hardly the main agenda, just ask the corporate pirates who are behind the US led push.

Either way it is pointless pursuing moral obligations when oil and logistics are the prime motivator. The corporate sponsors of the Iraq invasion have the same butcher mentality as Saddam and those Iraqis now jockeying for supremacy.

While we are on diplomats -

Sir Rodric Braithwaite, a former ambassador to Moscow and ex--chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, called for Blair to resign immediately.

Tony Blair has become increasingly isolated as his handling of conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon has been called into question on many fronts.

Sir Rodric described the Prime Minister as "frayed and waxy zombie straight from Madame Tussaud's" programmed by the CIA to "spout the language of the White House in an artificial English accent. He should no longer stand upon the order of his going, but go. At once."