Winds of electoral change

After many years of election watching, and without the benefits of the psephologist’s tools, I am increasingly reluctant to predict electoral outcomes. The reluctance is more so when observing systems, such as that of the USA, from the outside.
But I do get excited about patterns and trends, and there is a strong theme growing throughout the western democracies.
The trend is not to or from a political stance. It’s not the groundswell of Christian activism we have been witnessing or a restoration of what the Americans call ‘liberalism’ or vaguely leftist policy.
The ordinary voter knows diddly-squat about political philosophy, and they are not likely to be enlightened by the infotainment fed to them as hard news.
It’s more likely the collective electorate is suffering something along the lines of ‘ennui’. A self serving political culture grounded in a concept of entitlement, which frequently translates as grasping greed, has left the voter stunned. Of all the choices, all the certainties there is only one reliable outcome, in the minds of most, another corrupt body of lawmakers.
I know many politicians would protest at that summary, defend themselves and fellows as upright, hardworking paragons. I guess they have to believe that, despite evidence to contrary.
The ordinary Joe is no longer suckered by these self righteous protests. Part of the reason they no longer buy it is that they are constantly informed by politicians themselves about ethical failures.
Where it really comes undone is many of the champions of ethical public behaviour are tainted themselves. It seems to simply go with the territory. Republican presidential aspirants such as Senators John McCain and Bill Frist are both stained on ethical issues.
On the Democrat side the potentially most powerful advocate for clean government, Senator Ted Kennedy, disqualified himself many years ago. Despite redeeming himself in so many ways, he knows there are many unanswered questions to come back and haunt him. Then there is Hillary, with allegations of encyclopedic proportions swirling around her.

Deciding Factor
By my observations of the current voter trends, one of the electoral certainties has gone down the toilet in this unethical political swamp – the power of incumbency. Every politician knows the natural advantage of incumbency but I suggest, at least for now, that power has become a negative,
The Democrats can do little to stop their potential return to power, short of monumental self destruction. This is not because of what they stand for, but rather that they are the only, albeit poor, alternative.
If the Democrats rail about Republican corruption and ethical failures they will give Joe Voter even more reason to distrust politicians en masse. But that probably won’t stand in their way.
If they do the unthinkable and sell policy over the usual political fare dished out at elections, they will probably just deepen voter contempt, but that still won’t stand in their way.
A potential win, under those circustances, is no great vote of confidence for the party or the system.

Lesson from Canada
We saw it in Canada when the Liberal’s were dumped for a fragmented and barely intelligible Conservative Party. Even though Canadians knew the Conservatives would most probably turn their backs on some deeply held social ideals, like not getting involved in US wars, the voters yielded to a compulsion for change. Any change!
It is not logical, but either is the body politic. When there are so few real logical choices change seems to be the rule.
The trend is moving in that direction in other countries too. Other US allies like Australia and Britain. In neither of those countries do the opposition parties present any great differentiation from the incumbent governments, it is simply that they are not the current government.

Like Canada’s Liberals, the Republicans and the incumbents in those other countries, might actually welcome the respite. The depth of corruption, of ethical lapses big and small tends to build over the life of a government.
It is nigh impossible to plug every hole or govern effectively when fending off various assaults. It reaches a point where the most minor issues, lapses which would otherwise be overlooked, just add to the burgeoning pile.

Responding to voter unrest
It probably is unfair on some genuinely decent politicians. But legislatures, administrations are collectives, with collective responsibility. If those genuine politicos genuinely want something better for their constituencies, the first thing they would do is fight to take away from the lawmakers all control over areas of potential self interest. They would fight for the establishment of fully independent corruption watchdogs; they would fight for fully independent electoral commissions; they would fight for independent procurement agencies.
Only by distancing themselves from areas of proven, grasping self interest will they convince Joe Voter that there is actually some equity in our collective political systems.