Outguessing Bush Polls

Following up from yesterdays ‘Winds of electoral change’ blog:
I’m still not comfortable with the business of electoral prediction; there are simply too many variables for gut feelings to cover. Today’s polls on Bush’s low ratings could just as easily tip the balance back in his favour, if not in the short term at least before the real poll.
I’m not sure how the ‘underdog’ effect works in the US, but I suspect the sympathy or fear vote works much the same anywhere. The voter is simply too uncertain to be able to make dramatic leaps.
From a story doing the rounds, in light of the poor polling we have:
Republicans said they feared the worst unless the political landscape quickly changes.

“These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had,” GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one.”

While that comment reflects my thoughts in the earlier blog, it is also a well known tactic of ‘judo politics’; that is, use your opponents strength/weight against them.
Having said that, with Republican’s leading figure hovering around the 35-40% approval on various issues, it is difficult to image how the numbers can be pulled back, no matter how cagy the strategy.
Okay, I’m thinking out loud here, but as I said, there are so many variables, especially this far out from the election.
Take this observation, for example:

“I think we will win the Congress,” Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean said, breaking the unwritten rule against raising expectations.

Yes it is an unwritten rule, but the novelty, if not hubris, of the situation so often trip up contenders who gain such a strong advantage in the pre election period. But that comment is tempered by the reality:

Strategists in both parties say it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Democrats to seize control of Congress.

Beneath it all we still have Joe Voter who knows there are serious problems but is virtually powerless to effect real change:

“I'd just as soon they shut (Congress) down for a few years,” said Robert Hirsch, 72, a Republican-leaning voter in Chicago. “All they do is keep passing laws and figuring out ways to spend our money.”

I’ll let you know mid November what the outcome is likely to be. Meanwhile it is more absorbing than trying to tease the answers from a London Times cryptic crossword. The clues are all there, but for now I’ll stick with erasable pencil to start filling the squares.