Canadians Talk fresh elections

According to an Ipsos Reid (IR) poll Canadians are giving serious thought to the acceptable lifetime of the recently elected minority Conservative government. Unlike the USA, there is no fixed period for parliamentary election, and as we’ve already seen, a government can be booted from office at any time.

But when a vote of no-confidence ‘brings the house down’, it is usually no laughing matter. People generally resent having to show up at the polls at a too regular frequency to sort out what elected members cannot.

That makes this Ipsos Reid poll particularly interesting, because it suggest that Canadians or at least 60% of them, have put a notional time limit on the parliament ranging from 6% who want to go back to the polls to 22% who are willing to give the government up to 2 years.

The actual figures are:

· Six percent say as “as soon as possible”;

· 10% say “sometime in the next six months”

· 23% say “not for another twelve months”;

· 22% say “not for another two years”; and

· 36% say “not until their term runs out in about four years from now”.

For the benefit of mikevotes and others who like to see the detail of the polls I’ve put PDF files here for the news release and the tables. However I think we can trust the credibility of IR who broke down the reasoning for a fresh election to:

“…the five priorities the Conservatives have said they will deliver on for Canadians, half feel that if they don’t “clean up government by passing the federal accountability act” (53%), “work with the provinces to establish Patient Wait Times Guarantee” (51%), and “make our streets and communities safe by cracking down on crime” (50%), the opposition should force an election.”

I can understand why those issues feature, although it is somewhat distressing to see ‘Law and Order’, the old political ‘pea and thimble’ trick, in the list.

Curiously what is not mentioned is the only issue I am hearing discussed; Canada’s increased involvement in Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Harper was cagy on two issues leading up to the election, his Christian Right supporter base and his pro war stand. He will no doubt pander to his Christian buddies, and meddle in what are essentially non political issues.

More troubling is the unheralded escalation of the country’s military stance into a frontline position. Kandahar is not the peacekeeping zone Canadians are used to supporting, it is a war zone. The full import of 'Operation Enduring Freedom' only came home to most Canadians with the first body bag.

As the father of one of the soldiers already killed in that operation puts it: “My son is readying for war. If only I could be sure of what he was fighting for.” Time Canada

A review of Canadian media headlines rates concern of the country’s entry into this adventure as a key concern, but I guess IR didn’t see it the same way and simply didn’t allow for the question.

I look forward to seeing another attempt by IR after a few more body bags come home. No doubt the Canadian military have finally been given the opportunity to strut their stuff in a real engagement, but it remains to be seen whether Canadian voters share their dreams of glory.

As one Canadian voter put it to me recently: "I'd rather have politicians who are pilfering the public purse than ones who send our kids off to war; especially a war which has nothing to do with us.”