Leaders losing the way

Signs that the current political paradigm is in decay are becoming stronger among Bush’s major allies. Both Britain and Australia show strong indications that the political pendulum has reached the end of its swing and is starting to drop.

Tony Blair’s grip on power continues to slip as ministers declare their support for his beleaguered deputy, John Prescott.

In a system where the majority party effectively selects the country’s top leadership, qualified support is often a predictor of imminent change.

True it is the Deputy Prime Minister who is in immediate danger of being dumped, but any moves against him are certain to force a full leadership spill.

Blair undermined his own position, in a recent cabinet shuffle, when he sidelined former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.

The situation in Britain is even more confused because while the jockeying is underway for Prescott’s plum position, the PM in waiting, Gordon Brown is no longer assured of a smooth transition when his time comes.

All indications are that the once unassailable New Labour is starting to collapse from within.

The Australia conservative coalition, composed of the dominant Liberals and junior partner the Nationals, is also showing signs of unraveling despite their total control of the Federal political scene.

In an effort to break Labor’s hold at state level, the Queensland conservative parties recently cobbled together a plan to form a single party.

Fearful of the fallout across the nation, federal leaders were quick to squash that plan. But the episode clearly demonstrates the fragility of the current situation.

An even greater sign of an administration losing focus and direction, was the federal government’s decision to join key states in selling their stake in Australia’s icon Snowy Hydro Scheme. This proved an asset sell-off too far. Dismayed already by the sales of major national assets, the public stood firm in opposing this one.

That Howard even blundered into this latest mess is a sign that he is losing his famous grip on the public pulse.

There are a number of reasons why the proposed Snowy sell-off was a stupid concept. The bulk of the country’s immigrants, through the 50s and 60s served their time on this massive project. In its conception and construction the scheme was sold as a symbol of a country coming of age. It has deep emotional pull on the country, but a practical one too.

Remember that over 70% of Australia is unarrable, it is the driest continent on earth. Besides generating power, the Snowy scheme feeds major rivers and provides precious water for agriculture industrial and domestic use. The sale would have effectively privatised a major supply of Australian water.

Both Blair and Howard had a reputation for knowing how far and in what direction they could go before risking their support bases. They have lost those skills as surely as they are losing their leadership authority.