Monday, December 04, 2006

Promising polls and self interest

Australia is due to go to the voters sometime around October 2007. There is no fixed term here, rather go to election ‘at least every three years’. The Prime Minister sets the date, although John Howard hasn’t got much room to move on this one for various reasons.

I have noted before that Howard’s government faces fallout from a number of scandals and of course Iraq. The polls, at this stage, are showing the government well behind Labor – with the split at the weekend Lab 56 Lib 44 per cent.

Seven in 10 voters aware of the Cole inquiry still believe the Government knew of AWB's kickbacks to Iraq in the oil-for-food scandal despite ministers and public servants being exonerated last week.

But, there are still three economic quarters to weather before election day, and I will stick with those economic indicators as a far stronger predictor than the polls.

Labor are busy trying to cement the poll advantage, with a leadership ballot due today. Current leader Kim Beazley through the leadership open after constant rumblings of a challenge. This vote is significant because there has been no opportunity for the powerful party factions to pre-arrange outcomes. Labor MP’s have what is essentially a free vote in the party room.

The number crunchers are saying that challenger, Kevin Rudd will dump Beazley (I will post the result later) but there are still wild cards in play.

At heart, good man that he might be, Beazley is stamped as a loser. With so much going there way the Labor Party really do need a strong show or resolve, a fresh and winning team. The clock ticks and we will know soon enough.

But again, if those economic indicators do not swing against the government the rest seems to be little more than positioning and window dressing.

On current indicators Labor should form the next government, but there is still those economic variables in play. Sadly they never seem to fail, voters self interest is as reliable as it is short sighted.

UPDATE: The Labor leadership challenge has been resolved with Kevin Rudd the new Federal opposition leader. So here we go with a fresh start leading into next year's election.


Kvatch said...

...voters self interest is as reliable as it is short sighted.

Ain't that the truth. What's Kevin Rudd like? What's his background?

Praguetwin said...


I've got another question about the three-pronged economic election model you have been talking about. Unemployment and interest rates are pretty simple, but with regards to inflation, do you mean to say if the rate of inflation goes down. That is to say if it is 3% y/y and then 2.5% y/y that is decreasing?

Yeah, it must be, duh.

Cartledge said...

Kvatch, I'll get back on Rudd. He looks like a winner for now.

PT, yeah, but I might have slipped somewhere. A decrease is good news for government.

Sorry about the response delay. My Canadian relationship breakup has had some unfortunate fallout, including galleonpoint :( Such is life.

Praguetwin said...


Sorry to hear about the breakup. These things happen. Hang in there.

Kvatch said...

including galleonpoint

Damn! That's a bummer.

he knows who's talking said...

You speak of sleaze and corruption; you are a hypocrite of the worse kind. You were supported while on your writing tangent, and used the person who loved you most. It's no wonder our relationship came to a halt. Perhaps the 'unfinished business in Chicago' has something to do with it. Another person you can use for your own imagined gain. You are just as untrustworthy and incompetent as any politician. Its unfortunate your manipulation got it the way. You would have gone far. You didn’t even have the decency to tell me what happened to the web space I was paying for, for years. Maybe you should have an open debate on this? I would be more than happy to supply my argument, I have nothing to Hyde.

Cartledge said...

'hkwt' What?

Otherwise, I've been off line a few days, but reconnected now on dsl. Might start getting some wrk done.