Canadian Federal election looming?

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has created the team he plans to lead into the next federal election by shuffling his cabinet to fill the critical vacancy at Foreign Affairs and provide lift in the key battlegrounds of Quebec and British Columbia.

Well that is the scenario, though it is hard to see the point. According to all the polls Harper will come out of a contest with a minority government – hardly his preferred outcome. One commentator described the cabinet reshuffle as:

“…was arguably the best selection from a shallow gene puddle of Cabinet-ready MPs.”

To make things worse for Harper, his star, the turncoat Liberal, and now Foreign Minister is highly unlikely to see re-election. Reports are that David Emerson has had a gutful of political pettiness and prefers to deploy his economics PhD and blue-chip connections in a business world featuring super-sized paycheques and perks.

Even if he runs, his reputation as the Liberal cabinet minister who crossed the floor to the Conservatives before the official election results were posted will ensure he's not re-elected in that Vancouver riding unless there's a catastrophic meltdown in Liberal support.

So that rules out and expected BC benefit for Harper. Pandering to Quebec will also count against Harper in the Western provinces. Not fatally, but certainly enough to ensure continued minority status. The big failing of Harpers government is the poor representation of women. There are just seven women in a 32-member Cabinet and most of them in junior jobs with zero visibility.

Canadian voters seem to be content with their ‘not really a government’ situation. It might seem like voters are ‘cutting off their nose to spite their face’, but the fact is they have gone through difficult periods of corruption revelations and genuinely lack lustre representatives.

Perhaps it is time for some candidates with a real fire in the belly to stand up, but then perhaps that is just not the Canadian way.