Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Conservatives will win

The next Australian Federal election is tentatively scheduled for late 2007. It is a moveable feast, but October is broadly considered the most likely month because of the need to accommodate the fixed terms of the Senate. Other dates would force separate election dates; no one like needless elections.

The real point of this ramble, answering RBE, is what chance does the Australian conservative (Liberal) government have of surviving? The opposition Labor Party, under new leader Kevin Rudd, has really made a dent in the Liberal’s polling lead.

The figures below; taken over the past few weeks, show a lead. But one shrinking marginally. Rudd maintains that come the election they will probably be within a point of each other. I tend to agree with that, despite the implied posturing.

Mar. 18 Mar. 11 Mar.4

Australian Labor Party 48.5% 51.5% 51.5%

Coalition (Liberal / National) 36% 34% 33%

I can’t say I have any great preference for either, but them is the choices! Rudd is performing well, but shows conservative traits which worry me. One is playing up to the church lobby. I would prefer religion was kept well separated from politics.

But given the choices I’d love to see Howard dumped as Australian PM. It is the easy propensity to lie to gain power, delegated but absolute power that worries me most. Then I guess I’m not the only one and Australia not the only place where it is happening.

The hard part, as always, is working out if it really makes a difference.


reality-based educator said...

Wow - some politicians have to play up to the church lobby in Australia too? The influence of the church lobbies seems to be world wide.

Have you been paying much attention to the U.S. elections. W/ almost two years to go, the bloody things have started already and it's all about money! Who raised the most (HRC, Mitt not far behind),who didn't (McCain) and who can buy their way into the WH! Makes me proud to be an American.

BTW, despite their flaws, I am rooting for the opposition to Howard to win in Australia. And in Britain, I almost think it would be good for Labour to lose so they the Blair influence could be purged.

Anonymous said...

But in England, the liberals have no chance of winning. Only the Tories are in a position to knock off labor.

Cartledge, I'm confused by the title of this post. Are you referring to Rudd's showing some conservative tendencies? Or to the odd naming used for Australia's parties? (Probably not the latter, right?)

Cartledge said...

RBE, yes I will be working to see Howard's lot dumped.

Kvatch, my fear is that both major parties are essentially conservative. The same can be said of Britain, obviously.
I'm still waiting for the pendulum swing back to some sort of moderate position at least.

reality-based educator said...

The same can be said for America. With the amount of money needed to mount political campaigns, both Repubs and Dems whore themselves out to highest bidders.

That's why you have venemous pieces of shit like Joe Biden and Joe Lieberman proudly hawking the Bankruptcy Bill a few years back that essentially allowed the credit card companies to rewrite bankruptcy law entirely in their favor.

Anonymous said... fear is that both major parties are essentially conservative.

That's what I thought you meant. Thanks for the clarification.